Although up to 40% of the nation’s nurse workforce have said they plan to leave the industry by 2029, the demand-and-supply gap for registered nursing services is projected to decrease.
In 2024, the National Council of State Boards of Nursing surveyed more than 800,000 U.S. nurses and found that 22% of nurses said they will retire, while 18% said they plan to leave for other reasons, particularly due to stress and burnout, within the next five years.
The combined 40% represents approximately 1.6 million nurses who could leave the workforce by 2029, according to the council’s estimates.
Still, workforce projections from HHS’ Health Resources and Services Administration indicate “the gap between the demand for and supply of RN services is expected to shrink over the next decade from 10% in 2027 to 6% in 2037,” according to a January report from the council.
This forecast is partly due to an increase in first-time examinees of the National Council Licensure Examination, according to the report.
By comparison, the U.S. supply of licensed practical nurses and licensed vocational nurses is projected to decrease a whopping 36% by 2037, HRSA data shows. These workforces have declined in labor participation and absolute licensure statistics across most states, the report said.
“Although the projected outlook for the RN workforce is more favorable than it is for LPNs/LVNs, maldistribution of providers remains a critical issue, with nonmetropolitan areas projected to face significantly higher shortages than metropolitan areas in the coming years,” the report said. “These issues exacerbate the broader projected shortfall owing to the dual trends of increasing demand due to an aging population and an aging workforce.”
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